DAVID CAMERON will be the next Prime Minister of the UK in 2010 according to Julia Clark, Head of Research at Ipsos MORI – the company responsible for the collection of data for opinion polls on political matters, writes Greg Keane.
“We will have a conservative government in 2012 and it will be Cameron leading it, I’m almost certain of that”, Clark claimed when speaking at the first Coventry Conversations event of the summer term.
Research at MORI has lead Clark to the belief that it is “inevitable” there will be a Conservative government in place after the 2010 general election and that Cameron is now in the same place as former PM Tony Blair was in the satisfaction polls, as opposition leader before he won the 1997 election.
The only way Clark feels PM Gordon Brown can claw back satisfaction levels and gain back power would be if the economy recovered incredibly quickly and more so than any other country. As of now in the satisfaction polls, Brown is in the same place as John Major was after Black Wednesday, which is “staggering” according to Clark.
The opinion polls also suggest that the Tories have a 10 point lead over Brown’s Labour at this time, and will further boost the Tories confidence of taking power next year when it is expected the PM will call for a general election.
Clark also felt Cameron would be wise to follow newly elected US president, Barack Obama’s election campaign tactics. “Obama didn’t talk about policies nearly enough as he should have and was criticised for that”, she said. However, Clark felt this worked for Obama as he left himself open to as little criticism of his policies as possible.
…Research at MORI has lead Clark to the belief that it is “inevitable” there will be a Conservative government in place after the 2010 general election…
“This is exactly what Cameron is doing,” Clark confirmed. “I believe this is the right tactic for now, possibly not nearer the time of the election, however, it’s the right idea not to say much early on.”
The role of new media and blogs will also play a telling factor in the upcoming UK general election Clark stresses. She questioned whether Cameron’s team need to win the election internet battle like the people from Blue State did for Obama.
“How much of that magic pill was about Obama as a symbol or how much was it a result of new media,” she asked.
However, as Cameron is not as much as an “enigma” as Obama, Clark believes that Cameron would need the help of new media to give him that added boost in his election campaign.
Clark also laughed off suggestions from MP’s, including Gordon Brown recently, that they don’t take note of opinion polls, “Gordon Brown’s statement about not looking at polls was more damaging for him.”
“They absolutely take notice of the polls,” Clark claimed.
- Greg Keane is a final year journalism student at Coventry University